Make America Great Britain Again Shit

'Make America Swell Once again', aka #MAGA, is indisputably a bully slogan. Or equally Trump would put it, a really really great and wonderful slogan.

It does all the things you want a slogan to practice. It's short and punchy, easy to remember, still fun to shout the hundredth time, similar barracking for a football team.

It conveys a sentiment that'due south impossible to disagree with, withal it carries a sneaky payload (the assertion that America isn't smashing any more, and it'south the other lot'due south fault).

The Brexiters had a killer slogan besides. 'Accept Back Control'. Again: brusk, punchy, impossible to deny. And information technology had likewise a sneaky payload: you lot've lost control and it's Europe'southward error.

I couldn't tell y'all what the Remainers' slogan was. And I can't tell you what Hillary Clinton'southward is, either.

Donald Trump's slogan has caught on. Credit:Bloomberg

two. Facts don't matter

If you lot're a liberal you probably obsessively posted Facebook links to fact-bank check columns on Trump in which he incessantly states non-truths that anyone with a passing familiarity with Google tin can disprove in a microsecond.

Sorry, it won't assistance.

This isn't even about the 'post-fact politics' that everyone is going on about.

Election politics have never been about facts.

People don't vote on facts. They vote on promises. When you vote, y'all're choosing a future. And in that location are no facts about the future. Zilch.

There are only predictions and promises.

The Brexiteers lied and fudged. They fabricated claims about Eu regulations that were rubbish, they vastly overestimated the cyberspace British contribution to the European union budget and and then they said all that money could instead exist spent on the NHS.

They said Europe would exist fine with a United kingdom of great britain and northern ireland that rejected European clearing but stayed in the single marketplace.

They implied that the Great britain had no sovereignty on bug that, in fact, it had plenty of sovereignty over.

They flatly contradicted an array of economists who predicted economic gloom.

Brexit leader Michael Gove was mocked for saying "people in this country have had plenty of experts".

Just he was right. Voters generally don't consult experts for the facts earlier voting.

Britain's National Health Services was used as role of the Leave campaign. Credit:Getty Images

3. Polls tin be wrong and ofttimes are

British pollsters famously got both the Brexit and the 2015 United kingdom of great britain and northern ireland general ballot wrong.

In its postal service-election analysis, YouGov admitted information technology had oversampled the immature and undersampled the old. Merely some other one.4 per cent of the error they just couldn't work out.

Subsequently Brexit they had another go. They complained that people paid too much attention to the polls that predicted Remain and dismissed the ones that predicted Get out. If you don't think Trump will win, you discount polls that predict the opposite.

They also institute online polls were much more than accurate than telephone polls, which skewed the 'poll of polls' gauge which is supposed to shine out errors.

More than generally, polling experts say the Brexit pollsters applied 'sampling fault' corrections that corresponded to increasingly outdated predictions near how people vote (see below).

The importance of these corrections is brought home by a contempo experiment by The New York Times, in which they gave four reputable pollsters the same raw polling data.

The pollsters came dorsum with Clinton at +4, +3 and +one, and Trump at +i.

This wasn't the margin of error, by which unlike polls go different results by sampling different people. This was the inner fudging of the pollsters, exposed.

Mail service-Brexit breakdowns of voting patterns revealed that the biggest determinant of someone'southward vote was their level of education.

An overwhelming proportion of voters with mail-graduate degrees voted Remain.

An overwhelming proportion of voters with no post-high-schoolhouse qualifications voted Get out.

It was a bigger determinant than income, or race, or political fidelity, or geographical location.

Arguably, the US ballot is a similar post-political party-political ane: many Americans are not actually voting for a Republican or a Democrat, they are voting on what those people represent: the 'political establishment' vs a 'mad equally hell and not going to take it any more than' interloper.

This is a similar selection to the Brexit choice.

So the split amongst voters is likely to be the same.

And if at that place is a large, non-tertiary-educated hinterland gear up and mobilised to vote for Trump, they're not where the media are, and they're non where your social media are (and, equally above, they're not where the pollsters are).

They're invisible, and they're about to vote.

Nigel Farage, the leader of UKIP, tapped into the angry voter during the Brexit campaign. Credit:Getty Images

five. The only affair to fear is fear itself

'Project Fright' is said to have won the Scottish referendum contend: a loud and relentless barrage of bad news about what independence would mean for the Scots.

In the Brexit debate, the Remain campaign was repeatedly derided as 'Project Fright Mark II', for its dire predictions of postal service-Brexit economical woe.

But Go out played on fear besides – and much more than effectively.

This was fear of immigrants taking jobs, taking houses, taking school places, taking infirmary beds.

This was fearfulness of Brussels smothering British justice and strangling business organisation with cerise tape.

This was fear of the rise of Frg as a bigger, stronger European ability.

This was fear of the dead-weight effect of Greece etc on the continent's economic system.

But it was mostly fear of immigrants.

A taxi driver in Liverpool told me final month he voted for Brexit because "1 of my passengers was raped by a group of Somali men at a nightclub".

I asked him what that had to practise with the EU.

He didn't answer.

Fear of immigrants is the political theme of the concluding two years, at least. As a tool to mobilise voters, it works.

And Trump owns it.

6. Bonus points

So non to leave you utterly depressed, here are a couple of comforting points.

- In both the Brexit and Scottish referenda, the side with the most legacy media support won the day.

- Hillary Clinton has several qualities that David Cameron lacked.

- None of the major Brexit proponents, not even Boris Johnson, had been recorded boasting about grabbing women'due south undercarriage.

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Source: https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/make-america-great-again-is-a-great-slogan-and-other-lessons-from-brexit-for-the-us-election-20161012-gs05gm.html

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